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Denne ‘Ukens Case’ (uke 38 – 2023) er Aker BioMarine (AKBM) og som Aksjeanalyser.com finner svært interessant ved dagens kursnivå.
Aksjeanalyser.com er ikke alene om å finne Aker BioMarine (AKBM) veldig interessant, og en av selskapets 20 største aksjonærer er Ketil Skorstad, og som beviselig har svært god teft for å finne gode aksjecase å tjene penger på.
Ketil Skorstad har per i dag en beholdning av 300.000 aksjer i Aker BioMarine (AKBM) som da tilsvarer en verdi i dag på NOK 12.000.000,-. Selv for Ketil Skorstad så er det en betydelig investering, og han ser tydeligvis en stor oppside for AKBM-aksjen slik også Aksjeanalyser.com gjør.
THIS IS AKER BIOMARINE
Aker BioMarine is a leading biotech innovator and Antarctic krill-harvesting company developing krill-derived products for consumer health and wellness as well as animal nutrition.
The company has a strong position in its industry and is the world’s leading supplier of krill, the natural, powerful and health promoting source of nutrients from the pristine waters of Antarctica.
Aker BioMarine consists currently of two business segments, Ingredients and Brands.
The Ingredients segment is comprised of offshore harvesting and production, the logistical operation and the onshore manufacturing and sale of krill-derived products globally to the nutraceutical, pet food and aquaculture industries.
The Brands segment is the human consumer goods business, which is comprised of Lang Pharma Nutrition (Lang) and Epion.
Lang is a producer and distributor of private labels within the vitamin and supplement categories to the largest retailers in the US market. Epion is Aker BioMarine’s consumer brand company. Its brand, Kori, was launched in the US mass market in 2020.
Les mer om selskapet på deres hjemmesider her:
SECOND QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS
- Revenue of USD 88.6 million in the quarter, up 21% from USD 73.4 million in the same quarter last year. Net sales in the Ingredients segment increased by 26% while the Brands segment were up 9% compared to same quarter last year.
- Adjusted EBITDA of USD 21.5 million, on par with the same quarter last year. The Adjusted EBITDA margin was 24% compared to 29% in the same quarter last year, due to higher unit cost caused by temporarily low Houston production, and higher regional fuel spread.
- Qrill Aqua sales increased by 30%, and Superba krill oil sales increased by 42% compared to same quarter last year. Superba sales increased 13% also compared to the previous quarter.
- Krill offshore production volume was 17,846 MT in the quarter compared to 16,534 MT in the same quarter last year. All vessels operated according to plan.
- The company received the approval of Superba krill oil as Health Functional Food by the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety (MFDS) in Korea. Market launch is expected during third quarter.
- The protein launch plant is completed and produced its first test batch in June.
- The company has decided on a financial and legal restructuring to improve the visibility and transparency for shareholders with segments aligned with market dynamics.
- Subsequent event: The company took delivery of the USV (Unmanned Surface Vehicle) from Maritime Robotics.
Utdrag fra Q2 rapporten til Aker BioMarine (AKBM):
“Sales of Superba krill oil increased by 42% compared to the same quarter last year. Growth is driven by healthy development in Asia, Europe and Australia. Superba sales were 13% higher than in the previous quarter.
The price of fish oil and fish meal has increased significantly over the last year and was further up in the quarter due to scarce supply. The development is expected to disrupt market dynamics and create opportunities for the company. Krill oil is an alternative for fish oil for human consumption, and increased price for fish oil would generally increase competitiveness for krill oil, both from the retailers and consumers perspectives. Moreover, higher fish oil prices also increase the value of the Omega 3 content in our Qrill Aqua product, which might positively impact demand and prices.
The protein factory in Ski, Norway was completed on time and budget, and produced its first protein test batch end of June. Current design capacity is 112 MT/year, but further debottlenecking could increase the output to 240 MT/year. Customer dialogues are ongoing, and the product is currently undergoing formulation studies to support final commercial product for customers. Expecting ramp up of the plant as customer contracts are
Her noen kommentarer fra Arctic Securities etter deres besøk på den helt nye protein fabrikken til Aker BioMarine i Ski 18. september 2023:
Aker BioMarine has conducted lab scale protein development since 2017. In 2021, it launched Understory (previously known as Invi), a novel source of protein for human consumption. The pilot plant in Ski has now been constructed (USD 25m investment, 100-300t capacity) and focus going forward (next 2 years) will be on process improvements and product for commercial purposes
Krill/Understory has several winning arguments: premium protein quality (+90% protein), complete amino acid profile, water-soluble, rapid uptake (peptide form), gut friendly, rich in calcium/magnesium, sustainable and no additives
The addressable market is significant, global retail protein sales is ~USD 34bn and grows by ~USD 2bn annually vs Omega-3 supplements market of USD 4.6bn. The US market is a natural first step as it accounts for ~50% of demand, regulatory approval is in place
Confirmation of unit economics will lead to commercialization. Potential 5’t commercial plant (USD 100m CapEx) could generate revenues of ~USD 100m (in ~2029) with an EBITDA of 30-40m (compared to 2023 group EBITDA of USD 70m). 4 options to optimize scale-up: greenfield, partnerships, M&A and/or CMO.
Although Understory is an optionality it underpins AKBM’s in-house innovation capabilities
Link to Understory: https://www.understoryprotein.com/
Superba: Campaigns (home-shopping) in S. Korea is expected to start 24 September, and the company will have early signs if successful. This market peaked for AKBM at USD 27m in sales with a 60% market share. Today, AKBM is the only provider of krill oil in S. Korea
All harvesting vessels have now returned to shipyard for annual upgrades/maintenance. Total 2023 volumes so far are at 49.8’t, on par with last year at 49.5’t. This implies 12.1’t in Q3/23, in-line with our 12’t assumption. Last year, total volumes came in at 52’t, and the company expects the vessels to be back fishing during the second half of Nov/23, and based on historical catch volumes AKBM remains on track to deliver a normalized harvest year (~55’t)
Teknisk Analyse av Aker BioMarine (AKBM)
AKBM-aksjen har utløst flere positive tekniske signaler den seneste tiden.
Det samlede positive tekniske bildet for aksjen indikerer videre oppgang for aksjen på kort og mellomlang sikt, og etter den seneste korreksjonen ned.
Aksjen har brutt ut av den langsiktig fallende trenden, og over et viktig motstandsnivå rundt NOK 40.00.
Den seneste tiden har aksjen fått en korreksjon ned og tester nå det viktige og betydelige tekniske støttenivået rundt NOK 40.00.
Her er det også støtte nær 200 dagers glidende gjennomsnitt.
Aksjen er oversolgt på kort sikt, og en ny vending opp herifra det viktige og betydelige tekniske støttenivået rundt NOK 40.00 virker sannsynlig.
En ny og stigende trend kan være under etablering dersom støttenivået rundt NOK 40.00 nå holder og aksjen vender oppover igjen fra dette nivået.
Potensialet for aksjen vurderes til å være rundt NOK 60.00 på 1-3 måneders sikt.
Det samlede tekniske bildet for aksjen indikerer at den nå kan være ved et veldig gunstig nivå å kjøpe aksjen ved.
Det som eventuelt vil kunne endre dette positive tekniske bildet for AKBM-aksjen vil være om det skulle komme et etablert brudd ned under 200-dagers glidende gjennomsnitt.
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Bjørn Inge Pettersen