[29.01.2021] Hei kjære alle VIP medlemmer av Aksjeanalyser.com,
Aksjeanalyser.com har i dag sett nærmere igjen på en av sine største favorittaksjer på Oslo Børs, REC Silicon ASA (ticker: RECSI), og på hva det tekniske bildet for aksjen nå indikerer om den videre utviklingen fremover både på kort og lang sikt.
Ut ifra det samlede svært positive tekniske bildet for aksjen så vurderer Aksjeanalyser.com at denne aksjen kan ha muligheter for en flerdobling fra dagens nivå og det gjerne bare i løpet av året 2021.
Slik Aksjeanalyser.com vurderer det så er aksjen nå, og etter at aksjen nå har konsolidert den seneste tiden, gjerne ved et gunstig nivå å kjøpe aksjen på.
Aksjen er svært positiv teknisk både på kort og lang sikt, og mener aksjen nå kan stå foran videre kraftig oppgang i tiden fremover.
Les mer om dette i den oppdaterte tekniske analysen av REC Silicon ASA (RECSI) lenger ned i saken her.
Aksjeanalyser.com tok inn aksjen i høst i sin modellportefølje for Norge, og har der 20 prosent vekting i denne aksjen.
Aksjeanalyser.com har hele høsten 2020 vært svært positiv til REC Silicon (ticker på Oslo Børs: RECSI), og har sett nærmere igjen på aksjen her i dag.
Aksjeanalyser.com hadde den 26/08-2020 og for sine medlemmer, en svært positiv analyse av REC Silicon (RECSI), og skrev den gang blant annet følgende om REC-aksjen:
Den gang var REC-aksjen i NOK 3.45, mens aksjen i dag er rundt NOK 18.60.
Aksjen har altså hele femdoblet seg siden Aksjeanalyser.com nærmest ropte løp og kjøp aksjen da den ved analysen hos Aksjeanalyser.com den 26/08-2020 var rundt NOK 3.45.
Nå tror Aksjeanalyser.com at Rec Silicon (RECSI) kan dobles og gjerne flerdobles igjen i løpet av gjerne bare de neste 6-18 måneder.
Her noen nyheter ifm REC Silicon ASA (RECSI) nå den seneste tiden:
27.01.2021 – Kilde: TDN Finans
Ifølge Arctic Securities annonserte Sila Nanotechnologies, et batteriselskap som fokuserer på silisum-anoder, i går (26/01-2021) at de har gjennomført en kapitalinnhenting på 590 millioner dollar. Disse midlene vil bli brukt til å finansiere utviklingen av et nytt 100 gigawattimer (GWh) silisiumbasert anode-batterianlegg i Nord-Amerika. Den årlige kapasiteten representerer et marked på 1 million elektriske biler, skriver meglerhuset.
“Med 100 prosent utnyttelse av anlegget ved Moses Lake, kan REC Silicon alene levere hele etterspørselen fra Sila. Vi har på forhånd estimert rundt 80 prosent utnyttelse, ekskludert Sila, men vi ser nå økt sannsynlighet for full utnyttelse innen 2025”, skriver Arctic.
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27.01.2021 – Finansavisen.no
REC kan få monsterkunde i USA
Amerikanske Sila Nanotechnologies har hentet 590 millioner dollar for å bygge batteriannodefabrikk som kan ta hele RECs silangassproduksjon i Moses Lake.
Kilde: https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/industri/2021/01/27/7614795/rec-kan-fa-monsterkunde-i-usa
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21.01.2021 – globalnewswire.com
REC Silicon – Presentation at the Pareto Securities Power and Renewable Energy Conference 2021
Kilde: https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/f4f5fa1a-4ea2-4858-b1dd-75af860de6b4
Det anbefales også å lese analysen og saken nedenfor her, og som Aksjeanalyser.com har fått tillatelse til å publisere for sine medlemmer og følgere, og av en god kontakt og tidligere analytiker. Nå senere år større privat investor, og som har selv en stor posisjon i REC Silicon ASA (RECSI) aksjen. Her kan dere medlemmer og følgere av Aksjeanalyser.com lese hans analyse og tanker og vurderinger som gjøres rundt REC-aksjen.
Ticker: RECSI NO, REC.OL
Shares fully diluted(m): 372.4
Shareprice (NOK): 18.0
M.cap (musd): 791
NIBD (musd): 82
EV (musd): 873
THE CASE: TRANSITIONING TO A BATTERY PLAY COULD IMPLY 5 X UPSIDE!
After years of challenges due to the solar trade war between the US and China, REC Silicon is positioned to turn around the battery industry and become the leading provider of silane gas to the producers of silicon anodes for battery application. A market that is set to grow exponentially as EV manufactures and battery producers scramble to increase efficiency and longevity while at the same time as cutting costs and weight. Some customers of REC today (Sila Nano and Group 14) have managed to overcome this issue by replacing anodes in Lithium-Ion batteries made from graphite carbon with silicon. This improves energy density as silicon can store 10x lithium vs carbon. High purity Silane is the most efficient way of making silicon anodes.
REC is the only producer of silane gas in Europe and USA and has a capacity of 7.000 MT in Butte and 25.000 MT in Moses Lake = 32.000 MT total. Their current production at Butte of around 3k mt gives them a global market share of 70%. Their total capacity can supply 1m electric vehicles. This radically improves the earnings of a company which historically has had the same capacity linked to the oversupplied solar polysilicon market, as the silane gas was used as input in the manufacturing of solar grade polysilicon.
Silangas prices today is around 25 dollars and REC Silicon has a cash cost less than 10 dollars – with its capacity of 32k MT Silan. Assuming, similar 25 USD of prices today we are looking at EBITDA (100% capacity) of 480 MUSD. This comes from already installed capacity (REC has already fully financed the reopenening of Moses Lake). Applying a conservative multiple of 10x EBITDA (100% silan capacity) you get 108 NOK a share (only Moses Lake and Butte).
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) estimate a sale of 8.5m EVs in 2025 and 26m a year by 2030. The anodes will probably not entirely be converted to silicon anodes by 2025 but the potential should at least be pretty obvious.
BACKGROUND
REC Silicon is the world’s largest producer of silane gas with its current production out of Butte Montana. Butte, currently has 70% global market share in the silane gas market. In addition to Butte, REC will have a an additional 25k MT capacity per year of silane gas at Moses Lake when it is reopened. Silanegas is the principal material used in the production of polysilicon, and is an essential input material for thin film PV, semiconductors and LCD display manufacturing. REC Silicon also has the world’s largest silane gas ISO module container fleet and is a world leader in other silicon gases – dichlorosilane (DCS), monochlorosilane (MCS), disilane and polysilanes.
The patented, closed-loop silane manufacturing process used by REC Silicon produces consistent, ultra pure silane by conversion of metallurgical grade silicon into trichlorosilane and redistribution/ distillation to silane. The continuous-flow process recycles all hydrogen and chloride materials back to the initial reactors, while continuous distillation steps purify the gas. The entire process is a low waste, low impact and environmentally friendly procedure.
After being in distress for several years as a result of the US-China solar trade war, REC announced two transformational partnerships in October 2020. These two partnerships will enable REC to reopen Moses Lake sometimes during 2022 and maybe as early as end 2021.
Just after announcing the new partnerships, Pareto and Arctic Securities secured appr. 1 billion NOK to recapitalise the company and enable it to restart it Moses Lake operations. The cornerstone investor in this deal was reputable industrial conglomerate Aker ASA (Kjell Inge Røkke) who increased their stake with 300 mnok at nok 10.80 per share, taking their ownership to 24.7%. Aker had earlier in 2020 bought the entire stake from a distressed owner, making Aker the biggest shareholder.
REC has announced that these two partnerships give the Moses Lake facility sufficient production level and visibility for reopening Moses Lake. They have guided for 75% capacity utilization at Moses Lake for 2023 with an EBITDA of 100 musd. In addition to this, they will have 30-50 musd EBITDA at the Butte plant. Adjusted for SG&A, REC will have an EBITDA of around 130musd in 2023 growing to 200 musd (estimate by Pareto) in 2025.
The two partnerships secures the business case until 2025, but at some point in the near future you will see the demand after silane skyrocketing. Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) estimate a sale of 8.5m EVs in 2025 and 26m a year by 2030. The anodes will probably not entirely be converted to silicon anodes by 2025. Obviously, the need to expand REC’s production capacity will become a theme sooner rather than later, as the demand for silane for the EV battery market grows rapidly. Existing Moses Lake facilities have had an historical cap ex of 1.7 bnUSD, which is close to the current replacement cost today. This translates to a value of 38 NOK a share.
This will probably lead to a capacity expansion. An expansion will make investors value the existing facilities above its replacement cost, and will look to future earnings and growth.
The case stated above is dependent on the presumption that silicon anodes will make its way into batteries, replacing graphite anodes. Here are some reasons why its likely.
SILICON BASED ANODES FOR LITHIUM BATTERIES
To get a deeper understanding of this its strongly recommended to read the white paper of Sila Nanotechnologies written by Gene Berdichevsky, CEO (no7 employee in Tesla) and CTO, Gleb Yushin.
Klikk for å få tilgang til The-Future-of-Energy-Storage.pdf
Sila Nanotechnologies will produce silicon anodes for batteries, starting with consumer electronics (rumored to happen in 2021) and then expanding to EVs.
They claim that enhancing the Lithium-ion battery is the only path forward in the foreseeable future (read: next decades) and that battery cost and performance is holding back mass adoption of EVs. Daimler invested 170 musd in the Sila Nanotechnologies early 2019 (1 bn USD valuation) to be a part of the making of next generation Lithium battery.
Here are some other links to articles about Lithium-ion batteries
…and here more specific on the team and background from Sila Nano
Unknown to most in the global capital markets and the public in general, Sila Nano is currently a customer of REC Silicon (for smaller quantities of silane gas for Sila’s test production) , but could prove to become a big customer in the future if only fractions of Sila’s predictions come through.
Here is an interview by CNN of the CEO, Gene Berdichevsky.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH SILICON ANODES IS GETTING SOLVED
Anodes in Lithium-ion batteries today is made of graphite. So by replacing some or all of the graphite with silicon, the energy density of the battery is significantly improved (silicon can store 10x the quantity of lithium compared to graphite) reduce weight and cost, unlocks the cathode capacity in the battery (will come back to this) resulting in faster charging and much better longevity.
The main challenge has been that silicon anodes expands up to 3x during charging and then decrease to 1/3 with de-charging. This has broken the battery structure (the surface called SEI) so it will limit the number of charging cycles.
Both Sila Nano and Group14 claim they have fully or partly overcome this huge issue. This is done by packaging the anode inside a material that make the surface not break down during charging and de-charging.
Tesla endorsed silicon as the anode material of the future at their battery day in September 2020. Tesla are already using silicon oxides in their Panasonic battery, and is planning to use metallurgical silicon in the next phase of development. You might say this is a natural path towards next generation silicon anodes. Here is an article from Barrons exploring this with reference to REC customer Group14.
There is strong arguments for why next generation batteries for EVs will be using silicon as the main anode material. The use will gradually start to ramp up from 2023, and probably start to accelerate at some point after this.
Let’s go back to the white paper of Sila. They see a growth in the production of batteries from 20 Gwh pre the “EV-era” to 2000 Gwh by 2030 (when they expect about 100mill EVs on the road). This is expected to grow toto 30.000 Gwh by 2050. These figures for demand for battery capacity corresponds to the demand for 2-4 mill tonnes of silicon! Note that Sila expects solid state batteries to mainly be used for some niches areas, and thatsolid state batteries will be irrelevant in the battery market revolution.
Looking only to EV market, we can say something about the size of the market by looking at how much silicone or silane you would need per anode. Numbers range from 30 to 50 kg and its uncertain if this refers to silane or silicon. But if it is silicon the silane numbers are higher (1.4x). If we remember the estimated number of EVs sold per year in 2025 and 2030 (8.5 mill and 26 mill) you get demand figures for silane in 2025 (if this is already 100 percent adopted) between 255.000 and 425.000 metric tonnes. In 2030 the corresponding numbers will be 780.000 mt and 1.300.000 mt. This is mindboggling numbers. Looking at the 1.3 mill mt this is 26x world capacity today (including Moses Lake). And this is expected to happen within the short time frame of only 9 years.
When batteries switch from the use of graphite to silicon anodes, it enables leverage for to other materials to used in the battery cathode and more. Copper and iron fluorides will possibly replace the scarce resources of nickel and cobalt in the battery cathodes, and thereby removing the most obvious bottleneck for the necessary increase in production. In fact, its possibly one of the strongest drivers for accelerating the switch to silicon anodes.
Rec will have tremendous strategic value for both anodeproducers, battery companies and car manufacturers. It will also, on a standalone basis, be able to create superprofits for years to come. REC Silicon has vast experience and knowhow in this complex process industry. REC used to be a market leader in polysilicon and to emerge as a global market leader in the supply chain of silanegas to the battery market in the coming years.
Compared to some of the hydrogen cases I have seen lately and the extremely lofty valuations of up to 50x Revenue and more, REC is a bargain at 18 nok trading at 6x EBITDA.
Once, the market starts to understand the battery potential and the company discloses more details on its ambitions this stock will likely discount a lot of the future potential and see 50-100 NOK per share.
REC Silicon ASA (ticker på Oslo Børs: REC)
REC Silicon is a leading producer of advanced silicon materials, delivering high-purity polysilicon and silicon gas to the solar and electronics industries worldwide. We combine over 30 years of experience and proprietary technology with the needs of our customers, with annual production capacity of more than 20,000 MT of polysilicon from our two US-based manufacturing plants. Listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange (ticker: REC), the Company is headquartered in Fornebu, Norway.
Her noen nyttige linker for mer informasjon rundt selskapet og slik som: aksjekurs, nyheter om selskapet, finansiell informasjon, Nøkkeltall, Regnskap, finanskalender, resultatrapporter mv.
Hjemmeside Investor Relations Oslo Børs Nordnet Morningstar
[Oppdatert analyse den, 29.01.2021]:
Teknisk Analyse av REC Silicon (ticker på Oslo Børs: RECSI)
Aksjeanalyser.com har siden sommeren 2020 hatt REC Silicon ASA (RECSI) som en av sine største favorittaksjer på Oslo Børs.
I dag har Aksjeanalyser.com sett nærmere igjen på REC Silicon ASA (RECSI), og på hva det tekniske bildet for aksjen nå indikerer om den videre utviklingen fremover.
Aksjen har vist en svært sterk utvikling siden Aksjeanalyser.com sin egen tekniske og kvantitative analysemodell, SignalListen, utløste kjøpssignal for aksjen da den var rundt NOK 3.90 i midten av juli 2020 (jf. diagram ‘SignalListen’).
Aksjeanalyser.com tror aksjen nå, og etter den seneste konsolideringen, kan stå foran videre kraftig oppgang både på kort og lang sikt.
Aksjen er over både 50-dagers og 200-dagers glidende gjennomsnitt, og 50-dagers glidende gjennomsnitt er over 200-dagers glidende gjennomsnitt.
Dette indikerer at både den kortsiktige og langsiktige trenden for REC-aksjen har vendt til positiv, og er et kraftig teknisk kjøpssignal for REC-aksjen.
Aksjeanalyser.com sin egen tekniske og kvantitative analysemodell, SignalListen, er som nevnt her også i kjøpssignal for REC-aksjen (jf. diagram ‘SignalListen’).
Ulike momentum-indikatorer som RSI og Stochastics signaliserer nå at aksjen kan stå foran et nytt kraftig løft på kort sikt.
Slik Aksjeanalyser.com vurderer det så vil aksjen gjerne bryte over, og etablere seg over NOK 20.00-nivået i løpet av veldig kort tid nå, og det vil da være lite teknisk motstand for videre kraftig oppgang for aksjen.
Det kortsiktige potensialet (1-3 måneder vurderes til å være opp mot NOK 25.00 – 30.00, mens potensialet for aksjen på 12-18 måneders sikt vurderes til å kunne være helt opp mot NOK 100.00 – 120.00.
Aksjeanalyser.com ser altså en mulig flerdobling for aksjen på gjerne bare 12-18 måneders sikt.
Basert på det samlede svært positive tekniske bildet som aksjen viser så gjentar Aksjeanalyser.com i dag sine tidligere mange positive analyser av REC Silicon ASA (RECSI).
Aksjeanalyser.com har REC Silicon ASA (ticker på Oslo Børs: RECSI) i sin modellportefølje for Norge, og har der 20 prosent vekting i aksjen.
Det skal til slutt nevnes at aksjen er volatil og således innebærer det naturligvis også høy risiko ved å investere i aksjen, men slik Aksjeanalyser.com vurderer aksjen så er dette en av de aller mest interessante og spennende aksjene på Oslo Børs å sitte med i 2021 og gjerne de neste årene.
Teknisk Analyse av REC Silicon (ticker på Oslo Børs: RECSI):